Epidemiology, Public Health & Implementation

epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Update on COVID-19 Projections: Additional Modelling on Booster Doses

epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Update on COVID-19 Projections

epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Ontario Returns to School: An Overview of the Science

epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Ask Ontario’s Science Table: Omicron Edition

This slide deck was prepared by the members of the Behavioural Science Working Group and Science Advisory Table to respond to frequently asked questions about staying safe this holiday season given the 5th wave of COVID-19 and Omicron variant.
epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Update on COVID-19 Projections

epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Rapid Antigen Tests for Voluntary Screen Testing

Individuals infected with the provincially and globally dominant SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant demonstrate viral loads that peak sooner after exposure compared to those infected with previous strains of SARS-CoV-2. High SARS-CoV-2 viral loads are likely present before symptoms. These characteristics make the Delta variant challenging to control; however, they may also improve the performance and expand the practical utility of rapid antigen tests. In this Science Brief, we determined whether cases with high viral loads/low cycle thresholds are likely to be infectious, and if so, whether rapid antigen tests can reliably detect those cases. Voluntary screen testing entails regular voluntary testing of asymptomatic individuals to find cases in moderate-risk settings such as schools and workplaces. We found that rapid antigen tests can be a useful tool to reduce transmission in schools when used for voluntary screen testing to identify infectious cases in Public Health Units or neighborhoods using the following thresholds: Once a Public Health Unit or neighborhood approaches 50 new COVID-19 cases per million per day (corresponding to 35 cases per 100,000 per week) and is in sustained exponential growth, we advise weekly voluntary screen testing of unvaccinated and incompletely vaccinated individuals in elementary schools. Public health units in this situation may also decide to deploy rapid antigen testing in other settings, such as workplaces and congregate settings. If a Public Health Unit’s or neighborhood’s new daily case rate approaches 250 COVID-19 cases per million per day (corresponding to 175 cases per 100,000 per week), weekly testing is likely not frequent enough to reduce spread effectively. In that case, we advise testing unvaccinated and incompletely vaccinated individuals 2 to 3 times per week. Public health units in this situation may also consider voluntary screen testing of fully vaccinated individuals at the same frequency. Rapid antigen tests may also present a valuable alternative to individual isolation after exposure in schools. Implementing voluntary “test to stay” protocols, where exposed students remain in school as long as daily tests are negative for SARS-CoV-2, could help prevent the harms of isolation without increasing transmission. Individuals with positive rapid antigen tests should immediately isolate and undergo confirmatory Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing. Evaluation of the performance of rapid antigen tests for the diagnosis of the Omicron variant is urgently needed.
epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Update on COVID-19 Projections

epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Critical Care Capacity During the COVID-19 Pandemic

From March 20, 2020 to October 31, 2021, 9,096 Ontarians have been admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) with COVID-19 related critical illness. The COVID-19 pandemic has strained Ontario’s critical care system. At the peak of wave 3, the number of patients on ventilators was over 180% of pre-pandemic historical averages. The critical care system was able to accommodate this influx of patients by deferring surgeries and procedures, funding new ICU beds, identifying temporary surge space, team-based care models utilizing redeployed staff, and transferring patients between hospitals. This required effective collaboration and coordination across critical care system. The critical care system does not currently have capacity to accommodate a surge as it did during waves 2 and 3 due to worsening staffing shortages, healthcare worker burnout, and health system recovery efforts. Public health measures to mitigate influxes of critically ill patients are needed.
epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

COVID Risk Mitigation During the 4th Wave

epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief

Update on COVID-19 Projections

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