epidemiology-public-health-implementation, science-brief
| January 21, 2021
The Impact of the Speed of Vaccine Rollout on COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Ontario Long-Term Care Homes
Accelerating the rollout of Ontario’s COVID-19 vaccine such that all LTC residents receive the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the of January 31, 2021 would prevent a projected 600 COVID-19 cases and 115 deaths by March 31, 2021 when compared with the province’s current plan to vaccinate all LTC residents by February 15, 2021. Projections indicate that further acceleration of the rollout would prevent even more COVID-19 cases and deaths.
If vaccine supply is limited, the early provision of first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to LTC home residents is likely to be more beneficial than the on-schedule provision of second doses to health care workers outside of LTC homes. All LTC residents should receive the second dose according to approved vaccination schedules.
